Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.36 – 77.52

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 79.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.5 ±12.8

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 86.03Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 18.6Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 60.73Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.6 ±11.7

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 34.32Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX -9.92Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 53.12Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3176, 10172, 10332

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3176, 10172, 10332

Auto

30.2 19%

Teleop

105.3 65%

Endgame

27.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 829, 2867, 1018

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 829, 2867, 1018

Auto

19.3 26%

Teleop

37.0 49%

Endgame

19.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.4pts

Blue projected score77.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.8
Score range: 46–197
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 175.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.5Season APEX277.6

30.2Auto19.3

105.3Teleop37

27Endgame19

122Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	35
teleop	43	104
endgame	38	45
foul	0	0
total	112	184

Result

Final score

112 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 79.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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