Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.7 – 152.31

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.9 ±9.3

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 87.48Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 60.78Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 20.44Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329 ±11.2

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 41.77Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 39.81Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 70.73Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3494, 5402, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3494, 5402, 135

Auto

45.1 27%

Teleop

83.0 50%

Endgame

36.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1741, 4485, 7617

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1741, 4485, 7617

Auto

30.7 21%

Teleop

81.3 55%

Endgame

37.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.7pts

Blue projected score152.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.4
Score range: 120–201
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 177.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.9Season APEX329

45.1Auto30.7

83Teleop81.3

36.4Endgame37

75Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	52
teleop	57	7
endgame	32	5
foul	0	0
total	160	64

Result

Final score

160 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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