Qualification · Qualification 3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
169.12 – 216.1
36%64%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
151 – 209
Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±12.8
Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 128.64Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 74Event APEX 57.53Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 59.5Event APEX -17.05Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 147.41Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 43.29Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 25.4Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 461, 1018, 2171
59
/ 100 compatProjected
169.1 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 461, 1018, 2171
Auto
26.0 16%
Teleop
87.4 53%
Endgame
50.3 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 1501, 1555, 71
70
/ 100 compatProjected
216.1 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 1501, 1555, 71
Auto
61.2 29%
Teleop
106.2 50%
Endgame
43.0 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.97
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score169.1pts
Blue projected score216.1pts
Red win probability36%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -47
- Score range
- 134–251
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
285.3Season APEX304.6
26Auto61.2
87.4Teleop106.2
50.3Endgame43
77Consistency69
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 6 | 58 |
| teleop | 97 | 115 |
| endgame | 48 | 36 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 151 | 209 |
Result
Final score
151 – 209
Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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