Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

314.9 – 209.06

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

399 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.1 ±8.8

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 87.92Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 172.97Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 54.01Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±11.7

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 53.08Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 65.08Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 90.9Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 7457, 4982

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10021, 7457, 4982

Auto

60.9 20%

Teleop

169.7 55%

Endgame

75.5 25%

Strengths

· 7457 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8742, 3176, 461

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8742, 3176, 461

Auto

37.3 18%

Teleop

135.7 66%

Endgame

32.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score314.9pts

Blue projected score209.1pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.8
Score range: 178–346
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 172.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.1Season APEX344.4

60.9Auto37.3

169.7Teleop135.7

75.5Endgame32.3

134Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	23
teleop	251	138
endgame	92	125
foul	0	0
total	399	286

Result

Final score

399 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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