Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

180.91 – 183.3

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 97.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.1 ±13.1

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 117.46Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7695Trojan Thunder

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX -10.08Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 73.53Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.6 ±10.5

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 75.74Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 37.07Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 70.49Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4272, 7695, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4272, 7695, 234

Auto

24.8 14%

Teleop

89.4 49%

Endgame

69.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7617, 7198, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7617, 7198, 10021

Auto

21.8 12%

Teleop

95.6 53%

Endgame

61.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score180.9pts

Blue projected score183.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.4
Score range: 150–214
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 560 vs event baseline 172.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.1Season APEX401.6

24.8Auto21.8

89.4Teleop95.6

69Endgame61.3

134Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	42
teleop	196	132
endgame	85	63
foul	0	10
total	313	247

Result

Final score

313 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 97.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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