Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.5 – 144.07

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.7 ±11.7

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 40.3Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 32.22Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 60.98Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.1 ±11.7

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX -3Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 98.39Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 48.68Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6956, 3865, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6956, 3865, 3176

Auto

28.2 21%

Teleop

85.2 63%

Endgame

20.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4580, 1646, 8742

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4580, 1646, 8742

Auto

30.5 22%

Teleop

86.1 62%

Endgame

22.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.5pts

Blue projected score144.1pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.6
Score range: 102–176
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 175.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.7Season APEX305.1

28.2Auto30.5

85.2Teleop86.1

20.9Endgame22.8

142Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	7
teleop	101	44
endgame	33	12
foul	0	0
total	164	63

Result

Final score

164 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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