Qualification · Qualification 20
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
206.81 – 207.96
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
220 – 212
Prediction missed · off by 8.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.4 ±11.7
Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 52.41Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 49.44Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 104.96Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.9 ±12.8
Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 54.25Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 100.34Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67Event APEX 53.37Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 292, 1555, 3494
74
/ 100 compatProjected
206.8 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 292, 1555, 3494
Auto
36.7 19%
Teleop
103.0 53%
Endgame
54.9 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 10332, 461, 3487
76
/ 100 compatProjected
208 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 10332, 461, 3487
Auto
38.0 19%
Teleop
109.2 55%
Endgame
52.8 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.7
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score206.8pts
Blue projected score208pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 4%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -1.2
- Score range
- 176–239
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
321.4Season APEX265.9
36.7Auto38
103Teleop109.2
54.9Endgame52.8
79Consistency104
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 58 | 65 |
| teleop | 94 | 104 |
| endgame | 68 | 43 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 220 | 212 |
Result
Final score
220 – 212
Prediction missed · off by 8.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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