Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.46 – 203.27

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.3 ±9.8

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 76.34Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 29.06Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 63.06Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.8 ±10.4

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 55.19Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 103.89Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 44.19Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1646, 6956, 1741

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1646, 6956, 1741

Auto

37.8 23%

Teleop

99.4 60%

Endgame

28.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2867, 3176, 7617

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2867, 3176, 7617

Auto

33.3 17%

Teleop

115.0 57%

Endgame

51.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.5pts

Blue projected score203.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.8
Score range: 133–238
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 194.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.3Season APEX311.8

37.8Auto33.3

99.4Teleop115

28.2Endgame51.8

34Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	24
teleop	112	102
endgame	40	27
foul	0	0
total	193	153

Result

Final score

193 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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