Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.8 – 81.56

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.2 ±13.9

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 29.85Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2171RoboDogs

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX -0.08Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 30.03Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.1 ±13.3

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 42Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 3.17Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 36.39Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10172, 2171, 4485

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10172, 2171, 4485

Auto

-14.9 0%

Teleop

49.4 77%

Endgame

29.6 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1018, 9530, 71

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1018, 9530, 71

Auto

29.7 36%

Teleop

37.2 45%

Endgame

15.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.8pts

Blue projected score81.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.8
Score range: 29–113
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 174.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.2Season APEX162.1

-14.9Auto29.7

49.4Teleop37.2

29.6Endgame15.7

69Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	20
teleop	42	57
endgame	6	29
foul	0	0
total	64	106

Result

Final score

64 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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