Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.07 – 128.32

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 104.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.1 ±8.7

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 42.58Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 41.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 97.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.9 ±12.8

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 43.87Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 17.47Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 66.98Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1741, 10021, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1741, 10021, 1501

Auto

50.9 28%

Teleop

96.1 53%

Endgame

35.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3865, 2867, 328

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3865, 2867, 328

Auto

25.7 19%

Teleop

73.2 55%

Endgame

34.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.1pts

Blue projected score128.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.8
Score range: 97–213
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 174.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.1Season APEX194.9

50.9Auto25.7

96.1Teleop73.2

35.2Endgame34.6

68Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	13
teleop	196	15
endgame	72	18
foul	0	0
total	308	46

Result

Final score

308 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 104.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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