Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.35 – 145.89

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.4 ±11.7

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 60.93Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 58.05Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 77.37Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.2 ±13.5

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 52.92Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7695Trojan Thunder

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX -17.86Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 110.83Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 328, 3176, 5402

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 328, 3176, 5402

Auto

40.5 20%

Teleop

102.1 52%

Endgame

55.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6956, 7695, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6956, 7695, 3494

Auto

36.2 26%

Teleop

71.0 51%

Endgame

31.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.4pts

Blue projected score145.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.5
Score range: 116–226
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 169.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.4Season APEX333.2

40.5Auto36.2

102.1Teleop71

55.2Endgame31.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	22
teleop	109	61
endgame	44	43
foul	5	0
total	196	126

Result

Final score

196 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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