Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.65 – 104.4

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.5 ±12.4

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 51.2Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 46.36Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 48.09Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.1 ±13.9

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 21.14Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 60.97Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2171RoboDogs

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 22.29Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8742, 10172, 1741

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8742, 10172, 1741

Auto

30.7 22%

Teleop

90.3 64%

Endgame

20.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9530, 3487, 2171

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9530, 3487, 2171

Auto

18.5 17%

Teleop

48.8 45%

Endgame

40.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.7pts

Blue projected score104.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.3
Score range: 72–178
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.5Season APEX171.1

30.7Auto18.5

90.3Teleop48.8

20.3Endgame40.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	13
teleop	91	24
endgame	21	13
foul	0	0
total	137	50

Result

Final score

137 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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