Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
82.51 – 89.76
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
296 – 79
Prediction missed · off by 112.1 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.9 ±11.2
Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 37.35Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 13.46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 74Event APEX 31.7Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.8 ±12.2
Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 59.99Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 87.3Event APEX -10.39Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 40.16Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1501, 5402, 1018
47
/ 100 compatProjected
82.5 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 1501, 5402, 1018
Auto
18.2 22%
Teleop
37.9 45%
Endgame
27.8 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3865, 4580, 292
47
/ 100 compatProjected
89.8 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 3865, 4580, 292
Auto
12.5 13%
Teleop
51.5 55%
Endgame
28.9 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.56
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score82.5pts
Blue projected score89.8pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -7.2
- Score range
- 51–122
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
408.9Season APEX217.8
18.2Auto12.5
37.9Teleop51.5
27.8Endgame28.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 73 | 20 |
| teleop | 153 | 34 |
| endgame | 65 | 25 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 296 | 79 |
Result
Final score
296 – 79
Prediction missed · off by 112.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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