Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.92 – 114.83

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 96.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.4 ±12.4

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 29.25Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX -0.91Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 39.58Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.5 ±12.8

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 29.48Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 29.25Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1555CryoFrost

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 56.1Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 328, 9530, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 328, 9530, 10021

Auto

14.9 23%

Teleop

32.8 51%

Endgame

17.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 461, 7477, 1555

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 461, 7477, 1555

Auto

23.5 20%

Teleop

64.6 55%

Endgame

28.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.9pts

Blue projected score114.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.9
Score range: 36–147
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 176.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.4Season APEX231.5

14.9Auto23.5

32.8Teleop64.6

17.1Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	39
teleop	72	107
endgame	60	52
foul	0	20
total	158	218

Result

Final score

158 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 96.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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