Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.78 – 85.18

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.8 ±12.8

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 28.02Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 38.28Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 32.48Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.6 ±12.8

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 17.91Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 61.62Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 5.65Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4485, 10332, 4580

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4485, 10332, 4580

Auto

29.4 30%

Teleop

43.0 44%

Endgame

25.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7477, 829, 328

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7477, 829, 328

Auto

22.2 27%

Teleop

44.3 53%

Endgame

17.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.8pts

Blue projected score85.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.6
Score range: 50–134
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 194.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.8Season APEX198.6

29.4Auto22.2

43Teleop44.3

25.9Endgame17

16Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	30
teleop	36	55
endgame	18	30
foul	0	0
total	71	115

Result

Final score

71 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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