Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

425.25 – 236.09

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

462 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576 ±8.8

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 248.05Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 31.08Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 146.12Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±9.8

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 38.5Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 101.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 95.76Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7457, 4580, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

425.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7457, 4580, 1501

Auto

103.1 25%

Teleop

240.7 58%

Endgame

73.5 18%

Strengths

· 7457 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 135, 3176, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 3176, 6721

Auto

35.7 16%

Teleop

140.8 62%

Endgame

52.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score425.3pts

Blue projected score236.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.2
Score range: 201–460
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 765 vs event baseline 192.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576Season APEX338.3

103.1Auto35.7

240.7Teleop140.8

73.5Endgame52.2

12Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	29
teleop	265	184
endgame	95	90
foul	5	0
total	462	303

Result

Final score

462 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 51.8 pts

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