Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.56 – 143.63

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 204

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.9 ±8.7

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 49.71Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 19.42Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 60.43Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.1 ±11.2

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 56.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 58.03Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 28.83Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 8430, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 8430, 8116

Auto

22.7 18%

Teleop

78.1 62%

Endgame

24.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1720, 9431, 8103

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1720, 9431, 8103

Auto

29.2 21%

Teleop

76.3 54%

Endgame

34.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.6pts

Blue projected score143.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.1
Score range: 107–167
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.9Season APEX351.1

22.7Auto29.2

78.1Teleop76.3

24.9Endgame34.5

65Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	42
teleop	112	116
endgame	93	46
foul	5	0
total	249	204

Result

Final score

249 – 204

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 pts

Match videos

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