Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.95 – 125.24

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

320 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550 ±9.3

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 15.1Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 106.59Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 113.26Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.1 ±10.4

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 42.21Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 24.28Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 58.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10434, 10021, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

235 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10434, 10021, 5010

Auto

33.9 15%

Teleop

128.4 57%

Endgame

62.7 28%

Strengths

· 5010 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 45, 9491, 9119

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 45, 9491, 9119

Auto

14.5 11%

Teleop

80.4 63%

Endgame

32.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235pts

Blue projected score125.2pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.7
Score range: 103–257
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 124.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550Season APEX246.1

33.9Auto14.5

128.4Teleop80.4

62.7Endgame32.7

0Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	25
teleop	195	74
endgame	80	70
foul	0	10
total	320	179

Result

Final score

320 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 pts

Match videos

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