Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
66.26 – 199.11
16%84%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
124 – 127
Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.3 ±11
Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 23.76Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 46.3Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX -3.8Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434 ±9.9
Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 82.34Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 17.25Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 99.52Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3147, 6498, 4926
47
/ 100 compatProjected
66.3 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 3147, 6498, 4926
Auto
19.2 30%
Teleop
32.6 51%
Endgame
12.6 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 868, 292, 234
80
/ 100 compatProjected
199.1 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 868, 292, 234
Auto
27.3 14%
Teleop
105.8 55%
Endgame
60.3 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.15
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score66.3pts
Blue projected score199.1pts
Red win probability16%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -132.9
- Score range
- 44–221
- Upset likelihood
- 16%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
267.3Season APEX434
19.2Auto27.3
32.6Teleop105.8
12.6Endgame60.3
83Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 42 |
| teleop | 59 | 51 |
| endgame | 29 | 19 |
| foul | 15 | 15 |
| total | 124 | 127 |
Result
Final score
124 – 127
Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts
Match videos
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