Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.95 – 89.76

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

337 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550 ±9.3

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 5.75Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 97.13Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 103.07Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.8 ±9.8

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 45.2Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 34.1Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 10.46Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10434, 10021, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

206 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10434, 10021, 5010

Auto

32.4 16%

Teleop

119.6 58%

Endgame

54.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1747, 6956, 1741

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1747, 6956, 1741

Auto

11.1 13%

Teleop

43.5 50%

Endgame

31.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206pts

Blue projected score89.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.2
Score range: 68–228
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 122.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550Season APEX313.8

32.4Auto11.1

119.6Teleop43.5

54.3Endgame31.8

40Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	21
teleop	152	35
endgame	90	15
foul	50	0
total	337	71

Result

Final score

337 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 pts

Match videos

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