Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.05 – 138.63

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434 ±9.9

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 103.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

292PantherTech

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 21Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 86.37Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.9 ±8.7

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 51.51Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 24.12Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 63Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 234, 292, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 292, 868

Auto

27.3 13%

Teleop

118.1 57%

Endgame

61.7 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 761, 8430, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 8430, 8116

Auto

22.6 17%

Teleop

89.5 65%

Endgame

24.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.1pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.4
Score range: 117–233
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 122.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434Season APEX362.9

27.3Auto22.6

118.1Teleop89.5

61.7Endgame24.6

0Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	40
teleop	58	69
endgame	57	52
foul	15	10
total	160	171

Result

Final score

160 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 41.7 pts

Match videos

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