Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.44 – 155.27

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550 ±9.3

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 22.41Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 112.47Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 120.56Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.9 ±8.7

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 58.39Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 27.75Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 69.13Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10434, 10021, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10434, 10021, 5010

Auto

34.6 14%

Teleop

142.0 57%

Endgame

71.7 29%

Strengths

· 5010 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 761, 8430, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 8430, 8116

Auto

23.6 16%

Teleop

88.0 58%

Endgame

40.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score255.4pts

Blue projected score155.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.2
Score range: 132–278
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 130.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550Season APEX362.9

34.6Auto23.6

142Teleop88

71.7Endgame40.2

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	45
teleop	116	66
endgame	83	70
foul	5	0
total	245	181

Result

Final score

245 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Match videos

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