Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.03 – 146.08

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.1 ±10.4

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 43.66Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 26.26Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 61.11Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.9 ±8.7

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 55.29Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 24.73Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 66.06Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 45, 9491, 9119

/ 100 compat

Projected

131 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 45, 9491, 9119

Auto

16.7 13%

Teleop

76.9 60%

Endgame

35.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 761, 8430, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 8430, 8116

Auto

25.0 18%

Teleop

82.9 58%

Endgame

34.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131pts

Blue projected score146.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.1
Score range: 108–169
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 129.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.1Season APEX362.9

16.7Auto25

76.9Teleop82.9

35.5Endgame34.3

33Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	14
teleop	75	125
endgame	26	83
foul	0	0
total	127	222

Result

Final score

127 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Match videos

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