Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.4 – 184.86

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.1 ±10.4

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 44.3Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 26.87Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 61.23Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434 ±9.9

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 77.8Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

292PantherTech

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 12.32Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 94.74Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 45, 9491, 9119

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 45, 9491, 9119

Auto

15.9 12%

Teleop

78.4 59%

Endgame

38.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 868, 292, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 868, 292, 234

Auto

29.0 16%

Teleop

96.2 54%

Endgame

52.7 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.4pts

Blue projected score184.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.5
Score range: 109–208
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 127.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.1Season APEX434

15.9Auto29

78.4Teleop96.2

38.2Endgame52.7

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	32
teleop	70	70
endgame	21	22
foul	15	0
total	127	124

Result

Final score

127 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 33.1 pts

Match videos

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