Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.4 – 54.56

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 55.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.2 ±12.8

10411G-Code Generals

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 40.64Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 16Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX -Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.7 ±10.7

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 12.84Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9071SlicerTech

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 4.86Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 36.86Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10411, 3559, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10411, 3559, 6498

Auto

19.8 25%

Teleop

37.8 48%

Endgame

21.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8430, 9071, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8430, 9071, 8116

Auto

8.0 15%

Teleop

29.8 55%

Endgame

16.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.4pts

Blue projected score54.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.8
Score range: 31–102
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 130.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.2Season APEX199.7

13.2Auto8

26.9Teleop29.8

16.9Endgame16.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	16
teleop	17	79
endgame	4	21
foul	0	0
total	29	116

Result

Final score

29 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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