Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.26 – 178.1

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.6 ±12.8

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 20.03Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 18.52Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 21.71Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.2 ±10.7

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 18.07Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 59.93Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 100.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9491, 5188, 3487

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9491, 5188, 3487

Auto

12.2 21%

Teleop

29.6 52%

Endgame

15.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10172, 8116, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10172, 8116, 234

Auto

19.0 11%

Teleop

119.0 66%

Endgame

42.5 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.3pts

Blue projected score178.1pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.8
Score range: 38–200
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.6Season APEX268.2

12.2Auto19

29.6Teleop119

15.6Endgame42.5

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	17
teleop	51	105
endgame	23	63
foul	0	30
total	93	215

Result

Final score

93 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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