Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.98 – 91.18

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.8 ±10.7

10411G-Code Generals

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX -0.33Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 51.08Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 25.23Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.6 ±11.7

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 34.9Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 6.43Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 49.85Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10411, 761, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10411, 761, 8430

Auto

21.1 29%

Teleop

33.8 47%

Endgame

17.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 45, 9790, 9119

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 45, 9790, 9119

Auto

11.4 12%

Teleop

60.6 66%

Endgame

20.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76pts

Blue projected score91.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.2
Score range: 54–113
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.8Season APEX212.6

21.1Auto11.4

33.8Teleop60.6

17.4Endgame20

107Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	25
teleop	56	104
endgame	23	28
foul	0	0
total	91	157

Result

Final score

91 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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