Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.73 – 117.69

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.7 ±11.7

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 30.14Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 4.67Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -2.08Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.2 ±11.2

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 57.88Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 30.39Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 29.42Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1018, 10434, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1018, 10434, 7657

Auto

17.1 57%

Teleop

-2.2 0%

Endgame

15.1 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1720, 6956, 8103

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1720, 6956, 8103

Auto

14.6 13%

Teleop

67.0 61%

Endgame

28.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.7pts

Blue projected score117.7pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85
Score range: 11–140
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 120.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.7Season APEX328.2

17.1Auto14.6

-2.2Teleop67

15.1Endgame28.4

69Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	20
teleop	23	75
endgame	11	68
foul	0	0
total	58	163

Result

Final score

58 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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