Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.76 – 154.36

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.1 ±11.7

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 15.73Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 39.9Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 33.13Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 542.9 ±10.7

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 46.73Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 14.42Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 93.21Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5188, 6498, 45

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5188, 6498, 45

Auto

15.8 18%

Teleop

54.6 61%

Endgame

18.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 761, 10172, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 10172, 10021

Auto

37.5 25%

Teleop

93.6 62%

Endgame

20.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.8pts

Blue projected score154.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.6
Score range: 67–176
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.1Season APEX542.9

15.8Auto37.5

54.6Teleop93.6

18.7Endgame20.5

64Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	63	150
endgame	39	36
foul	0	0
total	118	210

Result

Final score

118 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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