Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.14 – 72.68

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.8 ±12.4

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 30.73Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8431Robo-Knights

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 17.25Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 26.16Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.6 ±10.4

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 59.98Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -5.55Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 18.25Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1018, 8431, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1018, 8431, 8430

Auto

19.6 26%

Teleop

36.8 48%

Endgame

19.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9431, 7657, 9491

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9431, 7657, 9491

Auto

12.3 17%

Teleop

46.5 64%

Endgame

14.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.1pts

Blue projected score72.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.5
Score range: 51–96
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.8Season APEX197.6

19.6Auto12.3

36.8Teleop46.5

19.6Endgame14.1

78Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	19
teleop	32	43
endgame	15	42
foul	0	15
total	70	119

Result

Final score

70 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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