Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.09 – 93.99

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.9 ±10.7

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 6.8Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 101.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8432Cyber Knights

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 6.58Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.3 ±11

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 29.65Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 48.93Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 15.41Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1741, 234, 8432

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1741, 234, 8432

Auto

13.7 12%

Teleop

57.4 51%

Endgame

42.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4580, 9119, 3147

/ 100 compat

Projected

94 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4580, 9119, 3147

Auto

14.6 15%

Teleop

61.6 65%

Endgame

18.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.1pts

Blue projected score94pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.1
Score range: 73–136
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 119.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.9Season APEX223.3

13.7Auto14.6

57.4Teleop61.6

42.4Endgame18.5

34Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	21
teleop	38	62
endgame	30	38
foul	15	0
total	107	121

Result

Final score

107 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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