Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.24 – 149.03

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.3 ±11.2

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 91.16Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 21.26Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 29.82Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.4 ±12.4

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 97.43Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2171RoboDogs

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 36.96Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 14.64Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 3487, 6956

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10021, 3487, 6956

Auto

23.1 17%

Teleop

83.1 63%

Endgame

26.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5010, 2171, 3559

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5010, 2171, 3559

Auto

20.3 15%

Teleop

74.7 54%

Endgame

43.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142.2pts

Blue projected score149pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.8
Score range: 121–170
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 117.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.3Season APEX318.4

23.1Auto20.3

83.1Teleop74.7

26.2Endgame43.8

28Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	23
teleop	101	83
endgame	55	49
foul	10	5
total	185	160

Result

Final score

185 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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