Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.8 – 32.09

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.9 ±9.8

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 80.15Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -3.46Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 28.11Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.2 ±11.7

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 14.22Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 4.05Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

292PantherTech

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 13.82Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 7657, 6956

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 868, 7657, 6956

Auto

15.6 16%

Teleop

62.9 63%

Endgame

20.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10172, 1741, 292

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10172, 1741, 292

Auto

6.1 21%

Teleop

5.0 17%

Endgame

18.5 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.8pts

Blue projected score32.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.7
Score range: 11–126
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.9Season APEX282.2

15.6Auto6.1

62.9Teleop5

20.7Endgame18.5

12Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	18
teleop	52	25
endgame	57	12
foul	5	15
total	124	70

Result

Final score

124 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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