Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.62 – 72.42

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 6.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.6 ±12.4

8431Robo-Knights

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 18.91Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX -1.58Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 101.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163 ±12.8

2171RoboDogs

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 39.37Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 5.66Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 27.39Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8431, 9790, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8431, 9790, 234

Auto

17.8 15%

Teleop

69.4 57%

Endgame

35.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2171, 10434, 8103

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2171, 10434, 8103

Auto

16.6 29%

Teleop

24.1 42%

Endgame

17.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.6pts

Blue projected score72.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.2
Score range: 51–140
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 117.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.6Season APEX163

17.8Auto16.6

69.4Teleop24.1

35.3Endgame17.1

15Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	12
teleop	72	16
endgame	25	30
foul	0	10
total	127	68

Result

Final score

127 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 6.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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