Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.23 – 143.56

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.3 ±10.8

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 169.96Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 34.46Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9071SlicerTech

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 2.81Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.2 ±11.2

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 28.86Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 94.94Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 19.76Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7457, 9119, 9071

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7457, 9119, 9071

Auto

32.0 15%

Teleop

130.9 62%

Endgame

47.1 22%

Strengths

· 7457 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4580, 10021, 5188

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4580, 10021, 5188

Auto

29.4 21%

Teleop

79.2 56%

Endgame

33.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207.2pts

Blue projected score143.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.7
Score range: 123–228
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.3Season APEX429.2

32Auto29.4

130.9Teleop79.2

47.1Endgame33.2

67Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	29
teleop	220	78
endgame	86	13
foul	0	5
total	345	125

Result

Final score

345 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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