Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.33 – 229.1

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.3 ±12.2

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 39.61Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 13.42Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2171RoboDogs

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 37.3Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.1 ±8.7

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 35.15Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 112.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 81.66Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6498, 3147, 2171

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6498, 3147, 2171

Auto

14.6 19%

Teleop

50.0 65%

Endgame

12.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8430, 234, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8430, 234, 868

Auto

36.2 16%

Teleop

135.3 59%

Endgame

58.9 26%

Strengths

· 234 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.3pts

Blue projected score229.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.8
Score range: 69–250
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.3Season APEX414.1

14.6Auto36.2

50Teleop135.3

12.3Endgame58.9

41Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	8
teleop	70	106
endgame	14	64
foul	5	0
total	116	178

Result

Final score

116 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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