Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.28 – 154.82

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 77.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.4 ±12.2

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 11.52Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 36.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

292PantherTech

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 25.41Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.2 ±10.8

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 8.67Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 156.01Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX -9.86Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3559, 4580, 292

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3559, 4580, 292

Auto

14.3 21%

Teleop

31.0 47%

Endgame

21.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9491, 7457, 9790

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9491, 7457, 9790

Auto

20.2 13%

Teleop

104.4 67%

Endgame

31.1 20%

Strengths

· 7457 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.3pts

Blue projected score154.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.5
Score range: 52–176
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.4Season APEX362.2

14.3Auto20.2

31Teleop104.4

21.3Endgame31.1

34Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	55
teleop	0	154
endgame	10	45
foul	0	0
total	17	254

Result

Final score

17 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 77.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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