Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.78 – 154.04

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.9 ±10.7

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 87.8Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 77.54Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 32.44Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.3 ±9.8

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 33.86Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 111.05Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 9.13Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 8116, 1018

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 868, 8116, 1018

Auto

24.8 12%

Teleop

139.7 69%

Endgame

36.9 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9119, 1024, 10434

/ 100 compat

Projected

154 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9119, 1024, 10434

Auto

38.8 27%

Teleop

73.9 51%

Endgame

32.8 23%

Strengths

· 1024 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.8pts

Blue projected score154pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.7
Score range: 133–219
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.9Season APEX356.3

24.8Auto38.8

139.7Teleop73.9

36.9Endgame32.8

17Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	49
teleop	62	32
endgame	25	58
foul	0	5
total	122	144

Result

Final score

122 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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