Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.91 – 17.64

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.8 ±11.2

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 78.03Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 47.69Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 19.19Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±12.8

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -7.62Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9071SlicerTech

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX -1.12Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 26.38Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1720, 6498, 3487

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1720, 6498, 3487

Auto

24.5 18%

Teleop

80.4 60%

Endgame

28.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7657, 9071, 5188

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7657, 9071, 5188

Auto

10.7 53%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

9.5 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.9pts

Blue projected score17.6pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.3
Score range: -3–166
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.8Season APEX161

24.5Auto10.7

80.4Teleop0

28Endgame9.5

50Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	9
teleop	76	9
endgame	2	12
foul	15	0
total	107	30

Result

Final score

107 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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