Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.7 – 128.73

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.3 ±11.2

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX -8.78Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 47.05Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 34.43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.2 ±10.7

8431Robo-Knights

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 18.52Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 13.29Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 96.92Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9790, 1747, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9790, 1747, 8430

Auto

10.8 14%

Teleop

50.6 68%

Endgame

13.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8431, 1741, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8431, 1741, 10021

Auto

23.7 19%

Teleop

74.9 59%

Endgame

27.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.7pts

Blue projected score128.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56
Score range: 52–150
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 117.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.3Season APEX493.2

10.8Auto23.7

50.6Teleop74.9

13.2Endgame27.5

78Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	32
teleop	39	45
endgame	22	36
foul	0	0
total	73	113

Result

Final score

73 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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