Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.3 – 91.72

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483.1 ±9.3

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 77.03Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -7.93Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 91.2Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.1 ±12.4

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 9.67Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10411G-Code Generals

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX -3.44Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 85.49Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1720, 7657, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1720, 7657, 5010

Auto

22.0 14%

Teleop

95.5 62%

Endgame

36.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10172, 10411, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10172, 10411, 868

Auto

26.3 28%

Teleop

49.4 53%

Endgame

18.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.3pts

Blue projected score91.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.6
Score range: 71–181
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483.1Season APEX336.1

22Auto26.3

95.5Teleop49.4

36.6Endgame18

32Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	16
teleop	80	61
endgame	34	30
foul	10	15
total	164	122

Result

Final score

164 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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