Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.1 – 40.05

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.6 ±11.2

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 111.7Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 5.12Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 26.28Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.7 ±12.2

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 22.19Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

292PantherTech

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 9.08Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8431Robo-Knights

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 8.78Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 3559, 9491

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10021, 3559, 9491

Auto

24.3 17%

Teleop

80.6 58%

Endgame

35.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10434, 292, 8431

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10434, 292, 8431

Auto

16.7 46%

Teleop

2.6 7%

Endgame

17.0 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.1pts

Blue projected score40.1pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.1
Score range: 16–167
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 135.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.6Season APEX165.7

24.3Auto16.7

80.6Teleop2.6

35.2Endgame17

1Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	28	36
endgame	13	21
foul	0	0
total	56	77

Result

Final score

56 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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