Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.52 – 96.52

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

392 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 70 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 656.3 ±8.1

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 146.15Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 85.17Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 70.2Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.7 ±12.4

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 31.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 20.78Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 44.02Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7457, 10021, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7457, 10021, 8116

Auto

39.3 13%

Teleop

191.2 63%

Endgame

74.1 24%

Strengths

· 7457 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8103, 3559, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8103, 3559, 8430

Auto

19.3 20%

Teleop

51.2 53%

Endgame

26.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score301.5pts

Blue projected score96.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 205
Score range: 76–323
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

656.3Season APEX146.7

39.3Auto19.3

191.2Teleop51.2

74.1Endgame26.2

71Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	13
teleop	293	18
endgame	51	11
foul	0	5
total	392	47

Result

Final score

392 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 70 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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