Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.4 – 107.97

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.4 ±11.2

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 17.15Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 104.96Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX -9.71Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.8 ±9.8

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 34.6Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 22.06Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 51.31Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5188, 1024, 4982

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5188, 1024, 4982

Auto

45.2 43%

Teleop

49.2 47%

Endgame

9.7 9%

Strengths

· 1024 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6956, 1741, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

108 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6956, 1741, 1747

Auto

9.5 9%

Teleop

58.5 56%

Endgame

35.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.4pts

Blue projected score108pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.4
Score range: 87–133
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 115.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.4Season APEX313.8

45.2Auto9.5

49.2Teleop58.5

9.7Endgame35.6

33Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	7
teleop	53	49
endgame	55	25
foul	0	0
total	161	81

Result

Final score

161 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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