Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.12 – 90.31

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±10.7

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 88.64Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX -2.5Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 68.98Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±10.4

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 12.37Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 30.53Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 47.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 10172, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5010, 10172, 1720

Auto

25.8 17%

Teleop

93.9 62%

Endgame

31.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10434, 4926, 4580

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10434, 4926, 4580

Auto

16.7 22%

Teleop

25.8 34%

Endgame

34.5 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.1pts

Blue projected score90.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.8
Score range: 69–176
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.7Season APEX247.8

25.8Auto16.7

93.9Teleop25.8

31.1Endgame34.5

71Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	5
teleop	116	30
endgame	50	5
foul	5	0
total	203	40

Result

Final score

203 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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