Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.81 – 8.74

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 537.7 ±9.3

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 43.9Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 72.68Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 93.23Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.1 ±12.8

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX -0.56Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10411G-Code Generals

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX -3.98Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8431Robo-Knights

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 13.28Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 9431, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 9431, 868

Auto

44.3 21%

Teleop

133.9 65%

Endgame

27.9 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9491, 10411, 8431

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9491, 10411, 8431

Auto

3.5 32%

Teleop

0.1 1%

Endgame

7.5 68%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.8pts

Blue projected score8.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 201.1
Score range: -12–231
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

537.7Season APEX155.1

44.3Auto3.5

133.9Teleop0.1

27.9Endgame7.5

50Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	16
teleop	80	27
endgame	40	1
foul	0	0
total	158	44

Result

Final score

158 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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