Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.66 – 102.97

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.1 ±11.2

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 63.55Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 6.86Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8432Cyber Knights

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 10.25Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387 ±9.3

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 40.74Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 80.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -18.34Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8116, 45, 8432

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8116, 45, 8432

Auto

12.7 15%

Teleop

59.4 71%

Endgame

11.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8430, 10021, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

103 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8430, 10021, 7657

Auto

23.3 23%

Teleop

53.1 52%

Endgame

26.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.7pts

Blue projected score103pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.3
Score range: 60–124
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 114.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.1Season APEX387

12.7Auto23.3

59.4Teleop53.1

11.2Endgame26

95Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	27
teleop	59	90
endgame	35	29
foul	0	0
total	106	146

Result

Final score

106 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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