Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.9 – 103.19

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.5 ±11.7

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 34.99Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 16.9Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 31.01Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.2 ±12.2

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 52.14Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 24.52Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 26.53Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6498, 9119, 8103

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6498, 9119, 8103

Auto

15.4 18%

Teleop

45.2 52%

Endgame

25.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1747, 3147, 3487

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1747, 3147, 3487

Auto

19.3 20%

Teleop

56.9 58%

Endgame

22.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.9pts

Blue projected score103.2pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.3
Score range: 63–123
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.5Season APEX212.2

15.4Auto19.3

45.2Teleop56.9

25.8Endgame22.6

90Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	14
teleop	81	39
endgame	20	4
foul	10	0
total	131	57

Result

Final score

131 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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