Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.32 – 113.86

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.3 ±11.7

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 62.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -5.93Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX -1.51Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.4 ±11.2

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 18.08Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 24.79Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 70.99Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4580, 7657, 10172

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4580, 7657, 10172

Auto

14.0 29%

Teleop

25.2 53%

Endgame

8.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5188, 8430, 9431

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5188, 8430, 9431

Auto

14.6 13%

Teleop

61.8 55%

Endgame

36.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.3pts

Blue projected score113.9pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.5
Score range: 35–134
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.3Season APEX194.4

14Auto14.6

25.2Teleop61.8

8.3Endgame36.1

123Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	27
teleop	10	96
endgame	3	30
foul	0	0
total	25	153

Result

Final score

25 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree