Qualification · Qualification 29
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
40.67 – 28.28
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
105 – 96
Prediction correct · off by 66 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.7 ±11.2
Season APEX 283Event APEX 68.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 47.9Event APEX -8.38Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 95.8Event APEX -19.32Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±11.7
Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 6.51Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 24.5Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.5Event APEX -2.73Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10021, 10411, 4982
17
/ 100 compatProjected
40.7 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 10021, 10411, 4982
Auto
30.8 84%
Teleop
6.4 17%
Endgame
-0.6 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 45, 4926, 2171
16
/ 100 compatProjected
28.3 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 45, 4926, 2171
Auto
4.5 44%
Teleop
-1.5 0%
Endgame
7.3 71%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.33
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score40.7pts
Blue projected score28.3pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 12.4
- Score range
- 8–61
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
426.7Season APEX277.8
30.8Auto4.5
6.4Teleop-1.5
-0.6Endgame7.3
60Consistency113
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 20 |
| teleop | 41 | 45 |
| endgame | 28 | 16 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 105 | 96 |
Result
Final score
105 – 96
Prediction correct · off by 66 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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